"Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia," Forrest E. Morgan (IFRI - Proliferation Papers, No. 40, Winter 2012

Jeudi 15 mars 2012 4 15 /03 /Mars /2012 15:55

"Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia," Forrest E. Morgan (IFRI - Proliferation Papers, No. 40, Winter 2012

Ifri's Security Studies Center is pleased to inform you that

issue No. 40 of the Proliferation Papers series

has just been published:

Dancing with the Bear:
Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia

By Forrest E. Morgan

Download the article at: http://www.ifri.org/downloads/pp40morgan.pdf

"Escalation", the tendency of belligerents to increase the force or breadth of their attacks to gain advantage or avoid defeat, is not a new phenomenon. Systematic thought about how to manage it, however, did not crystallize until the Cold War and the invention of nuclear weapons. Given the limitations identified in these Cold War approaches to escalation and the profound changes that have affected the strategic environment, a new framework for thinking and managing escalation against nuclear adversaries is needed. It should lead to a deeper understanding of the phenomenon of escalation: its dynamics, forms, and the motives that drive it. This paper attempts to fill a gap in the current strategic literature, and explores the challenges that NATO would face in managing escalation in a military conflict with a major nuclear power such as the Russian Federation. Escalation management is about keeping wars limited. In a war against Russia, Western leaders would need to weigh their interests in the issue at stake and adjust their war aims and efforts accordingly. They could secure success only if it is defined and pursued in ways that ultimately allow for compromise and do not threaten the survival of the Russian state or its leaders.

You can post comments on this article and read Ifri's researchers' original contributions on security studies on the blog "Ultima Ratio."

The latest Proliferation Papers include:

- In Defense of Deterrence: The Relevance, Morality, and Cost-Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons, Bruno Tertrais, 39, (2011)

- Intelligence and Nuclear Proliferation: Lessons Learned, Keith A. Hansen, 38 (2011)

- Russia's Nuclear Forces: Between Disarmament and Modernization, Pavel Podvig, 37 (2011)

- Strategic Stability in the Cold War: Lessons for Continuing Challenges, David S. Yost, 36 (2011)

- Potential Strategic Consequences of the Nuclear Revival, Charles D. Ferguson, 35 (2010)

- Chinese Perceptions of the Utility of Nuclear Weapons. Prospects and Potential Problems in Disarmament, Jing-dong Yuan, 34 (2010)

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